Last couple blog entries I’ve been thinking about leadership. Specifically, the risks of leadership.
Please don’t take me for a pessimist. As my wife will tell you, I’m an optimist. And for many years as a young entrepreneur, a delusional optimist. But twenty-two years of entrepreneurial life has a way of tempering my delusional tendencies. Optimistic and realistic leadership is vital for success.
So let’s get some realism. Several years ago I read The Prince, a famous book by sixteenth-century philosopher and polticial scientist, Niccolo Machiavelli. It’s a controversial book, criticized as amoral and tyrannical by some, and praised for tough pragmatism by others. Basically, it’s medieval street smarts for young political leaders in a rough-and-tumble world. It pulls no punches.
At the end of the book there’s a quote I’ve never been able to shake. “Let it be noted,” wrote Machiavelli, “that there is no more delicate matter to take in hand, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor more doubtful in its success, than to set up as a leader in the introduction of changes. For he who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order of things, and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off under the new.”
Now, before we go labeling this as pessimistic and hopeless, remember, we become effective leaders when we understand how change works, and are fully aware of the costs. So let’s break down his statement and apply it to our efforts to lead change.
Change is dangerous.
Introducing changes is an extremely delicate matter. It is dangerous to try. It is doubtful in its success. Why? Because change guarantees loss for some, while only offering the possibility of gain for others. As influencers, we should never take a change effort lightly. It is certainly possible, but rarely easy. If we fail to understand this, we fall prey to naivety that creates "flavor of the month" initiatives that fail time after time and reinforce cynicism and opposition. This is a hallmark of immature leadership.
Change guarantees loss for some.
As I wrote in an earlier blog about loss aversion, we hate losing twice as much as we love winning. And as much as we’d like to think otherwise, every change we make requires some sort of loss. We lose out on North every time we drive South. We lose out on the benefits we enjoy today if we choose something different tomorrow. Change will always be opposed from those who like things just the way they are. Anyone who perceives themselves to be “well off under the existing order of things,” writes Machiavelli, will oppose change, directly or indirectly. As a leader, this means we should always expect opposition, and try not to take it personally.
Change offers a chance of good, but no guarantee.
Machiavelli tells us we’ll only find “lukewarm supporters for those who might be better off” with change. They know there’s a chance we’ll fail. Every time we consider an opportunity or have to make a decision, we figure the chances it will pay off. The advertisement stapled to the telephone pole reads, “I earned $5,000 in one day!” But we don’t call the number, because chances are slim to none it would ever happen. We calculate an expected value in every opportunity, and chance plays a big part. Effective leaders understand this. Whatever we leaders think the benefit of a change might be, we know it is half that or less in the minds of those we’re trying to influence.
Changers face dangers, because their changes create guaranteed loss for some, and only the possibility of gain for others. When mature leaders understand the dynamics of resistance on the one side and the dynamics of doubt on the other, they can more successfully lead change.
